Even better, value betting works with .


Thin value is where you value bet marginal hands on the river and expect to make only a small profit from those value bets over the long run.


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That’s the basics of it, but to fully understand thin value betting we’re going to need to compare "standard value bets" to "thin value bets". A slightly complicated diagram might help as well.

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Most bettors have probably heard of the term expected value, but not all of them know what it actually means, and even fewer actually apply it to their bets.

You should consider making a value bet when you have a strong hand and believe that your opponent has a slightly worse hand that they might call a bet with.



Here, the EV is 4%, or $4 per $100 bet, signifying a positive expected value. Betting $100 on heads over 1,000 bets with this setup:

The most common mistake that novice players make is that they freeze up whenever they hit a very strong hand, and start to check and call thinking that they are luring their opponent in and setting them up for a big fall. However in reality, all that is happening when you check and call is that you are missing opportunities to get more money into the pot for you to win.


– Lyödään vastaveto pörssissä (Betfair Exchange) ”normaalisti”.

If you asked me to summarize in one sentence what value betting is about, it would go like this:

Unlike and , you don't bet on all outcomes with value betting.

A bookmaker offering fair odds would have no edge and would pay out as much in winnings as they took in losing bets over time.

A bet that gets action from enough worse hands

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To successfully implement value betting, it’s essential to:

The exact definition of Expected Value is the predicted value of a variable. The way expected value is calculated is: the sum of all possible values and then multiplied by the probability of its occurrence. Expected value applies to much more than just sports betting as well. It can be in terms of an investment, or anything regarding probabilities.

This means you need to bet $115 to win $100. Using the same formula:

Yes, a value bet can backfire if your read on your opponent's hand is wrong. If your opponent has a better hand than you thought, you could end up losing more money.

Place just a single bet each time.

Thanks for the pep talk! I will keep at it. At least I am playing just above break-even which is better than losing!!

Loving your first book. I printed out your starting hand chart and keep it next to the laptop. I am making a betting chart based on your advice next. I am using PT4 for hand review and using your Lite HUD. If/when I start winning regularly I should send you a cut!

One way to identify value betting opportunities is through .

This calculation shows an expected profit of $4,000 over 1,000 similar wagers, highlighting the power of betting with a positive EV.

While this adjusted probability example is simple, these types of positive-EV sports betting opportunities come up many times each and every day. Optimal finds them for you!

You will need at least $/£/€2,000 to get started with value betting.

In the sports betting world, it is essentially a way to measure the probability gap between a bettors expectations of the outcome of the event, and the sportsbooks expectations for the same event. It places an actual percentage to that probability gap, and the goal of a sports bettor is to only bet on bets that are positive expected value, or mathematically profitable. The higher the percent profit margin the better.

Bettors can convert these line numbers into an implied probability.

Checking, calling and generally slowplaying at every opportunity with a strong hand is counter-productive. You want to win money right?

Time Efficient: It only takes seconds to identify a value bet.

This probably sounds very confusing, so let’s detail it in regards to Positive Expected Value betting.